With grain prices low, international trade talks stalled, safety net programs uncertain, continuous activist attacks on pesticide usage and biotechnology, and higher energy costs, corn farmers would be forgiven for being pessimistic this spring.

But spring is the time for optimism. If farmers aren’t optimistic at seeding time, it’s unlikely that they’re farmers.

At press time (early April), no one knew how easily the crop would be planted this year. For the past two years, it’s gone into the ground in near-record time, and an early spring gives promise of the same again. Maybe it will be the same this year. Maybe not.

But as the seed goes into the ground, all of the potential for record yields still exists. No problems have surfaced yet from insects or diseases. The weeds are still below ground level. And – with rare exception in Ontario – there are no problems with drought at planting time.

The realities set in as the growing season progresses. The weed escapes persist despite “rescue” herbicide applications and late soil cultivation. Diseases move in, and insects do their thing. The summer-long habit of watching western skies for rain clouds begins, and pickup truck radios are turned to stations with the most frequent weather forecasts. Yield expectations drop.

Sometime around late June or early July, gyrations in corn and soybean futures prices usually intensify - plunging if crop conditions look good in the U.S. midwest, climbing if there are signs of developing drought. And with this comes the equal uncertainty of when to sell, at least for some of the soon-to-be-harvested crop.

And of course, there is usually some old crop still to be sold - still in bins at home, or in commercial storage, or as unpriced basis contracts - where decisions must be made, despite uncertainties, as to whether crops should be shipped before the heat of summer arrives or stored until late summer or early fall.

But for a few weeks at seeding time, all of these problems lie in the future. The emphasis is on putting seed into the ground and associated seeding time operations - just as it has been with farmers for thousands of years.

It’s a time for optimism.

There are other reasons for optimism as well. Canadian governments, both federal and provincial, seem to be accepting, again, the fact that continued public support will be required if farming is to prosper in this country - at least as long as European and American governments keep channeling even larger amounts of cash into the pockets and production capacities of their farmers.

And the agreement reached by agricultural ministers on safety nets in March will mean fairer treatment for farmers in all provinces. This will mean more funds to support the key Market Revenue Insurance program for Ontario grain and oilseed farmers.

In addition – despite the highly publicized failure in World Trade Organization talks in Seattle last fall – agricultural negotiators have met since then and there seems to be international recognition that the status quo in agricultural trade is untenable, and that improvements are needed, particularly in the area of trade harassment.

Activists’ outcries notwithstanding, the new products of biotechnology really do work and represent steps forward - simpler weed control, in the case of herbicide-resistant crops, and less insect and disease damage in the case of Bt corn. And there’s the promise of much more to come.

There are also hints that better corn prices may lie in the not-too-distant future - though another near-10-billion-bushel U.S. corn crop in 2000 could dash that hope.

Continuing expansions in the domestic industrial usage of corn (a new citric acid plant in Port Colborne, the Seaway ethanol plant in Cornwall, and expected expansion of the Commercial Alcohol ethanol plant in Chatham, as examples) give promise of continued growth in demand for Ontario corn. And research and development efforts related to the increased production of milling-grade corn continue to show promise of new market opportunities to come.

Good luck with the spring planting.

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