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Index


1999 CROP
The 1999 corn-growing season was unusually warm all across Ontario (as in 1998), but rainfall patterns differed significantly. Areas in southwestern counties which received adequate rainfall and enjoyed bumper crops in 1998 were treated less favourably this year. The reverse occurred in some areas north of Highway 401 and west of Toronto. Eastern Ontario had another good year. Statistics Canada will provide an official estimate of Ontario average yields in late November or early December. But at press time (mid November), an average crop of about 120 bu/ac seems likely. That’s less than the 128.8 bu/ac of 1998, but better than in all previous years.

Below-average grain moisture percentages at harvest helped limit drying costs, with lots of corn being harvested in the 16- to 21 per cent moisture range. But this was not enough to offset the disastrously low prices being experienced in late 1999. And there is little reason to expect a quick improvement. The current price, in inflation-adjusted currency, is about 40 per cent lower than the worst price experienced during the 1930s.

Although uncertain weather patterns will have a large and unpredictable effect on future corn prices, continuing large U.S. and EU subsidy programs will stimulate production and depress prices. And unlike the optimism which preceded the Uruguay Round of negotiations in agriculture, there are few expectations of substantial improvements for agriculture with the Millennium Round.

With skilled agronomic management, good marketing, special attention to the needs of niche market customers and sufficient government support, there continues to be good opportunities to make money growing corn and other field crops in Ontario. But it will not be easy for the next stretch. It sounds like the late 1980s and early 1990s all over again.

NEW FEDERAL SAFETY NET ANNOUNCEMENTS
In response to continuing pressure from the Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA) and its members – including the CFA-dominated National Safety Net Advisory Committee – the Honourable Lyle Vanclief, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food announced changes in early November to the Agricultural Income Disaster Assistance (AIDA) program. The changes included coverage of 70 per cent of negative margin losses on that portion of AIDA payouts funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), a change in the reference period to the middle three of the previous five years (for those who can benefit from this change), and the inclusion of paid family labour in calculations of net margins. Although Vanclief announced $178 million in new money, the actual new federal contribution is $107 million over two years (1998 and 1999). The assumption is that provinces will cover the other $71 million in new funding, an assumption which may be premature. Vanclief said that all claims will be covered for the 1998 taxation years. However, if there are insufficient funds to cover all claims, AIDA payouts will be pro-rated for 1999.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada officials have stated that the changes announced in November will mean that few new AIDA applicants will benefit from the changes. But some of the existing applicants will qualify for more.

Although Vanclief has received praise from a few CFA members for his announcement, the response from farmers and provinces has been less positive. Alberta had already announced changes in its Farm Income Disaster Program before the federal announcement...changes which did not include coverage of negative margins, but did eliminate negative margin numbers in base-year calculations and allowed farmers to use the best three of the previous five years as reference years. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have refused to fund their 40 per cent of the new payouts. Quebec is expected to transfer any calculated new federal money into its ASRA program account, just as it did with the initial federal ASRA announcement. Ontario has not announced what it will do.

Ontario Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, the Honourable Ernie Hardeman, is torn between the advice he is receiving from the Ontario Federation of Agriculture – to match the federal announcement – versus that coming from most other farm organizations, that are telling him not to cover negative margins because of the effect on the integrity of crop insurance. The Ontario Agricultural Commodity Council has suggested an approach more similar to the Alberta approach, i.e., no coverage of negative margins in the current year, but adjustment of all negative calculations in reference years to zero.

AIDA has become a very complex program – and a political football. But one thing does seem certain: Despite requests for continuation coming from various farm groups, AIDA is highly unlikely to survive its initial two years.

MARKET REVENUE INSURANCE
Scarcely heard amid the furor over AIDA was the quiet announcement of significant final payouts for those enroled in the 1998/99 Ontario Market Revenue Insurance (MRI) program for soybeans and wheat. Cheques went out to tens of thousands of farmers – many more than for AIDA – within days of the official announcement and without any complex forms to be completed. (The only forms with MRI are the final acreage and final yield reports.) In 2000/2001. MRI will begin its tenth program year. That’s a success story in longevity for Canadian farm income support programs.

Although not officially announced, the final 1998/99 corn MRI payment is certain to be for 9 cents/bu, based on 1998 planted acreage multiplied by 85 per cent of historic average yields. The 1998/99 payment is based on a support price of $3.32/bu, a yearly average market price of $2.99/bu, a premium deduction of one-third of the gross payout, and an interim payment of 13 cents/bu.

Although there has been no formal announcement from Ottawa, OCPA understands federal finance minister, the Honourable Paul Martin, has given his approval for the Ontario MRI program to retain $112 million in accumulated funds for an additional two years, i.e., through program years 1999/2000 and 2000/2001. While OCPA is disappointed that the extension was for only a short-period – and did not match announced projected termination dates for the U.S. transition payment program or for the impending WTO Round of negotiations on agricultural subsidies – we appreciate the extension.

OCPA thanks Minister Vanclief and all other cabinet and backbencher MPs who fought so hard for this decision.

The MRI program can continue to be funded out of Ontario contributions to safety net programs and out of so-called companion program funds provided by Ottawa, even though Ontario farmers (i.e., those not involved with the production of supply-managed commodities) keep getting proportionately much less federal safety net funding than farmers in all other major grain producing provinces.

Respecting a resolution passed at the OCPA semi-annual meeting, the OCPA board of directors has formally asked for an autumn 1999 interim payment on the 1999/2000 MRI program for corn. In fact, the legislation allows for two interim payments – one in the autumn of the crop year, (based on up to one-third of expected final payment) and one in the spring, based on up to half of the anticipated final payout. With a 1999/2000 corn support price of about $3.34/bu, and current prices well below $3, there’s an opportunity for a significant interim payment this fall.

A final note on the MRI appeal process: About 20-30 appeals have been filed and the appeal committee is meeting again in December for consideration. If you wish to appeal, please contact OCPA or Agricorp for details.

Remember, the final date for enrollment in the 1999/2000 MRI program is December 31, 1999.

CANADA VERSUS THE U.S.
Brian Doidge, Ridgetown College, University of Guelph, has repeated his calculation of relative support for farmers growing identical crops and acreages of corn, soybeans and winter wheat in Ontario versus Michigan. For 1998 (1998/99), Doidge calculated that a Michigan farmer would receive $103.61 (Can.) per acre in government support cheques versus $28.52/acre for the Ontario farmer. For 1999, the calculated payments are Michigan, $104.90; Ontario, $37.56. Neither number includes crop insurance indemnifications. The Ontario numbers include MRI and NISA. The U.S. numbers include market transition payments, loan deficiency and market loan payments, and special appropriations announced by the U.S. government in both years.

Undoubtedly, this discrepancy will be the cause of continuous debate in rural Canada this winter. What can be done about it? How can the playing field become more level, as it was during the early-to-mid 1990s when U.S. support levels were far smaller? Options under consideration including an increase in the MRI coverage level to 90 per cent, as proposed in a resolution approved at the 1999 semi-annual meeting, or an elimination of the premium portion of MRI payouts. There are no premiums in U.S. grain income/price support programs, nor with AIDA.

Canadian decisions on grain and oilseed income support will depend in part on what happens in Western Canada. AIDA is being widely condemned – as OCPA had expected – because of its dependence on a three-year historic average and its discrimination against diversified farm operations. Farmers are demanding per-acre payments which make little sense because they are not linked to differences in productivity of specific price/income declines. And everyone seems more intent on pointing fingers than in seeking solid, national answers to the problem. Finally, there continues to be denial in Ottawa that this is primarily a grain and oilseed problem and that U.S. and EU subsidies go mostly to producers of these commodities. The one-size-fits-all approach is still in vogue.

Until some direction comes from Ottawa and Western Canada, it’s difficult to make plans for changes in Ontario. However, the Ontario MRI (known also as GRIP) program has served Ontario well, and should serve as a basis for discussions on future program design.

PREMIER ROMANOW
Reflecting his recent trimming by voters in rural Saskatchewan, Premier Roy Romanow of Saskatchewan has entered the farm income support fray, leading a high-profile delegation of Saskatchewan and Manitoba politicians and farmers to Ottawa in late October seeking $1.3 billion in new funds. Romanow was apparently blind-sided by new numbers, including some coming from agricultural officials in Saskatchewan, showing 1999 farm income there will be much higher than formerly projected because of bumper crops.

OCPA was annoyed when Romanow attempted to build his case by dumping on Ontario farmers. He falsely suggested Ontario gets more than its share of federal farm income support. And after Vanclief’s announcement of new AIDA assistance, Romanow decried that some of the money would come to Ontario and other provinces too, not just Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Romanow also has refused to acknowledge his role in killing the national GRIP program, which was specially designed to address the kind of grain and oilseed farm income problems being experienced right now.

It’s not the normal OCPA policy to attack provincial premiers. But Romanow’s distortions and deceptions left little choice. A news release entitled “Premier Romanow Urged to Tell the Whole Truth about Farm Income Supports” was issued November 9. It can be found on the OCPA web site,
www.ontaricorn.org/dtn.html .

Of special interest here is a recent study by AAFC’s policy branch which shows the financial risk in farming – as measured by variability in farm income – is similar across all provinces. There was no evidence of greater variability (i.e., risk) in the Prairie provinces versus Ontario. So much for the Western argument that their greater share of federal financial spending is based on greater risk.

AGRICORP AND CROP INSURANCE
The Agricorp annual meeting took place in early November. An annual report and copies of presentations can be obtained from Agricorp or OCPA. OCPA is pleased that a special review of Agricorp is underway, led by management consultants Quality Performance Associates. The review may reveal opportunities for improvement.

OCPA is also pleased the Ontario corn acreage enroled in crop insurance exceeded one million acres for the first time this decade. The reasons for the increase appear to involve low premium prices, program improvements and aggressive marketing.

We’re expecting premium costs will be down again in 2000 and that a new Agricorp computing system will allow for an increased number of choices, e.g., 70 per cent, 80 per cent and 90 per cent coverage with both fixed and floating price options. Per-acre premium rates in 2000 may be only about half of what they were in 1994.

The Optional Unit Coverage pilot project will be repeated again in 2000. We’re not aware of any special problems in handling program claims this fall. One concern among participants is the high premium costs – participants paid premiums at the 90 per cent rate for 85 per cent coverage. Hopefully this will be reexamined before the 2000 season.

GENETICALLY MODIFIED CORN
OCPA delegates to the 1999 semi-annual meeting voted to continue to fight for the right to use genetically enhanced crops, despite the strong public opposition from anti-biotech activist groups. Sticking to this decision has dominated OCPA activities since.

The debate intensified in October with strong public statements from CBC personality David Suzuki. Although Suzuki has stated that he is fundamentally supportive of the technology and that he is essentially out of touch scientifically, the media and activist crowd chose to focus on his other more negative statements. OCPA and AGCare (of which OCPA is a member) have been fighting the fallout ever since.

Although it remains clear that the primary target of activist groups is big company control (a concern shared by many farmers, and the subject of another news item that follows), this concern does not seem as prevalent among ordinary citizens. The debate has been changed into one about food safety, about which consumers care a great deal.

The activists’ arguments focus on several issues. These issues (and our responses) are as follows:

There are signs the media is beginning to tire of this issue, but a resurgence is quite possible. The situation resembles the “Alar” episode of a decade ago.

In the meantime, expect to see lots of continued media presence for OCPA and AGCare on this issue. We’d welcome individual farmers sending letters to newspaper editors as well.

GE LABELING
A common theme in letters to editors and from the activists is the need to label GE foods. Folks in Ottawa seem aware of the complexities involved – and of the deceptive nature of labeling rules in Europe – but to the average citizen, it seems so simple.

A group of 40 appointees with voting rights (one is Ken Hough of OCPA) and 40 observers has been formed by the Canadian General Standards Board to develop guidelines for the voluntary labeling of foods containing GE ingredients. The group’s first meeting occurred in late November (after this newsletter was written). This will not be a speedy process, given that decision making is done by consensus. It may lead to a more formalized approach to labeling.

The AGCare position is that labeling should only be used when there is a known effect on health or nutrition. This position has been endorsed by the Ontario Agricultural Commodity Council and the Ontario Federation of Agriculture. OCPA supports this position. If, however, this position is not accepted widely, then the alternative OCPA position will be to label all foods which are genetically engineered.

The pressure to label GE foods is also intensifying in the U.S. There was strong pressure to label in Australia as well, until a study showed this would boost average food costs by 5 to 15 per cent. The issue is now under review. A major survey of Japanese food manufacturers showed that the elimination of all GE ingredients in food, via labeling, would increase food prices by at least 20 per cent. Finally, a recent Toronto Star feature documented the high costs of food in the United Kingdom. Eliminating GE foods has contributed to this differential.

BIOTECH COMPETITION, AFFORDABILITY AND PAPERWORK
Farmers and others have expressed concerns about the need to ensure widespread, competitive access to core technology used in creating GE crops. They’re also worried about the affordability of the technology for farmers both in Canada and developing counties, and about the complex Technology Use Agreement forms farmers must sign to purchase seeds of many GE crop varieties. Because of this, AGCare wrote major companies in early November and issued a news release, requesting the companies provide the following commitments:

  1. Assurance that core agri-food biotechnology – i.e., that used to transfer genes into crop species – will be available to competing companies, especially small seed companies, and to public plant breeders. These companies and public breeders should have the right to use the technology freely in research, and to market the resulting improved crop varieties on the condition that a fairly-priced royalty be paid to technology-patent holders, based on volume of sales. Where the plant breeding company or institution and patent holder cannot agree on terms of research, sale and royalty payments, there should be a third-party arbitration process.
  2. Assurance that farmers are not obliged to sign waivers or legalistic documents when purchasing genetically enhanced seeds. As a maximum, farmers should be asked to sign simple agreements saying they will not allow harvested seed to be used to plant a subsequent crop. The use of additional statements which read like legal documents designed to protect the company at the expense of farmers should be eliminated.
  3. Assurance that the technology is available at an affordable price to farmers, permitting them to share profits from use of the technology. Economic benefits should also be shared with consumers. Further, means are needed to ensure access to the technology at minimal or no cost for farmers in developing countries, with whom Canadian farmers do not compete in global markets. We are aware that some companies have made their technology available at no cost to research institutions for crop improvement in the developing world. Such initiatives are to be applauded and encouraged. OCPA supports this position.

WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
The Millennium Round of WTO negotiations begins in Seattle in late November, with a process which is expected to resemble a circus, dominated by anti-trade groups of which Canada will supply its share. Expect to see this event used as a stage for more demonstrations against biotechnology.

A major issue will be whether countries should be expected to honour their obligations under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (S&PS) agreement reached during the Uruguay Round. The S&PS agreement states that countries cannot restrict imports of food and agricultural products unless these restrictions are based on international standards for heath and safety, or domestic standards which can be defended scientifically. Europe has defied this obligation in the case of hormone-fed beef and in its decision to suspend the approval process for new GE food and agricultural products.

Europe says it is respecting citizen choice. But there is a clear difference between citizens refusing to buy products, and governments refusing to give them the choice where the products meet health and safety standards.

In its pre-Seattle statements, the EU has said it wants to keep the S&SP agreement as presently written and have the right to ignore the agreement. Clearly, this will not satisfy a lot of other countries, Canada included.

The other looming agricultural trade problem is state trading, with the EU having apparently joined the U.S. in attacking organizations such as the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB).

In the last trade round, Canada wasted negotiating time defending exemptions to Article XI. But Article XI is gone and supply management is alive and well. Will a disproportionate amount of Canadian negotiating energy be spent this time defending the CWB?

NACAN AND CASCO
The Nacan plant at Collingwood has announced it will begin producing some non-GE corn starch for customers (chiefly those marketing in Europe) willing to pay more for starch made from non-biotech corn. OCPA directors support this initiative, provided that reasonable incentives are paid as compensation for the efforts made to ensure purity – and, in some cases, for lower yields.

The OCPA believes the additional costs and obligations equal those involved in the production of waxy corn for the Collingwood plant – i.e., in the range of 25-35 cents/bu.

Farmers interested in exploring this market are encouraged to contact Richard Lafave, chief corn buyer for National Starch Company (headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana) owner of Nacan. His phone number is (317) 656-2213, fax (317) 656-2382, email:
richard.lafave@nstarch.com .

OCPA is willing to promote similar offers by other buyers. To date, Casco has found no need to provide a separate supply of non-GE corn products, though this could change depending on customer demands.It’s worth noting that Nacan’s business is primarily in specialty starches, while Casco specializes in high fructose corn syrup, glucose, dextrose and other sugar products as well as in general starch, corn oil and protein feed products.

OCPA believes Bt corn is better because of its lower content of worms, moulds and mycotoxins (and often better yields) but is willing to supply what customers want, at a price. The extreme in this “specialized products at a price” approach is organic corn production, of which there is some in Ontario.

MONARCH BUTTERFLIES AND BT CORN
A major meeting of North American researchers concerned with potential effects of Bt pollen on Monarch butterflies occurred in Chicago November 2. The following summary is provided courtesy of the Chicago Tribune:

When scientists announced in the spring that genetically engineered corn might kill Monarch butterflies, two things happened: Groups opposed to genetic engineering adopted the Monarch, perhaps the most recognizable American butterfly – as a symbol of the potential for trouble when science transplants genes from one species to another...and swarms of scientists headed out to cornfields across North America during the summer to see if the work done in the lab made sensein the field. Although data remains inconclusive, several studies suggest it is unlikely that many Monarchs will be killed by accidentally eating pollen from so-called Bt corn.

On Tuesday, the first Monarch Butterfly Research Symposium is to convene in Rosemont, where university scientists, some of whom have received grants from the bioengineering-seed companies, will discuss their early findings.” My impression right now is that the Bt impact on Monarchs is minimal,” said Dennis Calvin, a Penn State University entomologist. Highway departments that mow roadsides and railroads that spray their right-of-ways probably kill more Monarchs than transgenic corn, Calvin said.

The summer’s Monarch research was spawned by the findings of John Losey, a Cornell University entomologist who in May reported in the science journal Nature that transgenic corn has the potential to kill Monarch caterpillars. He found that if milkweed, the only plant that Monarch caterpillars eat, is dusted with pollen from genetically engineered corn, some of the caterpillars die. Bt corn has been implanted with a gene taken from a bacterium that is toxic to caterpillars. The gene tells the corn to produce the same caterpillar poison the bacteria makes, killing off a pest called the corn borer, a moth larvae. But that is toxin also present in the corn’s pollen, which drifts away from the corn and lands on any plant that happens to be growing nearby, including milkweed.

Scientists over the summer tried to measure how much Bt pollen it takes to kill the caterpillars and how much might land on milkweed leaves. Mark Sears, a professor at the University of Guelph in Ontario, found that corn pollen doesn’t travel far. Using sticky petri dishes set on poles that are about the height of milkweed, about 3 feet, Sears and his colleagues determined that 90 per cent of the pollen landed within 16 feet of the field. He also set out to find out how much Bt pollen has to be sitting on a milkweed leaf to kill a Monarch caterpillar. He found a threshold of about 500 to 700 pollen grains per square centimeter before the youngest, smallest Monarch larvae started to die. When the researchers counted pollen grains on milkweed leaves in the field, they found that plants growing in the cornfield had an average of 78 grains of Bt pollen per square centimeter. Milkweed just three feet outside the cornfield had only 26 grains per centimeter.” The risk to Monarch larvae is very minimal,” Sears said. Galen Dively from the University of Maryland also set out to measure how much of the pollen lands on milkweed and collected 1,300 milkweed leaves from in and around Maryland cornfields. Although just 13 per cent of his samples have been analyzed at a federal pollen laboratory, the early results also suggest that there is not enough pollen on milkweed leaves to kill Monarch caterpillars.” The milkweed isn’t real good at catching pollen,” Dively said. “Pollen tends to bounce off of it.” John Pleasants, a professor in the department of zoology and genetics at Iowa State University, found that 88 per cent of the milkweed within one meter of a corn field would fall below the level where they could hurt the caterpillars, and 100 per cent of the milkweed just two meters from a Bt field would be Monarch-safe.

Losey, too, will submit new research at the symposium that suggests that Monarchs might avoid milkweed near corn plants anyway. He believes, however, that the question remains open of whether Bt corn kills Monarchs.”It is too early to be reassured or more alarmed based on the early data,” Losey said. “It’s too early to rule how big a risk there is going to be.”

PESTICIDE USE REDUCTION
The Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has released results of its survey on 1998 pesticide use in Ontario agriculture. The survey shows total provincial farm pesticide of 5.167 million kg of active ingredient in 1998, versus 6.246 million in 1993, 7.201 million in 1988 and 8.719 million in 1983. The reduction is 41 per cent since 1983. Most of the reduction is a result of decreases in per-acre application rates for corn and soybeans, and a shift to soybeans (average application rates are now lower with soybeans than corn). About 38 per cent of 1998 pesticide usage was for corn, 25 per cent for soybeans, 82 per cent for all field crops and 18 per cent for horticulture. Interestingly, there has been only a seven per cent decline in total pesticide usage for horticulture since 1983 (though the trend is down since 1993).

The average per-acre pesticide use in corn in 1998 was 2.28 kg/ha versus 1.50 for soybeans. Both crops required about 3.5kg/ha of active ingredient in 1983.

Biotechnology represents an opportunity to reduce these numbers even further. A one litre/acre application of Roundup represents 0.9 kg/ha of active ingredient.

CORN RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS
Ontario corn seed companies have provided about $128,000 in voluntary research contributions (equivalent to 50 cents per unit of seed sold) on 1999 crop year seed sales, according to information provided by Agricorp, the independent trustee hired to manage the collection process. The total amount of money will be used to fund corn research, with all administration costs being paid by OCPA. Details will be provided in future issues of the Ontario Corn Producer.

OCPA thanks those who supported this program in 1999. They are Agventure Seeds Inc., Cargill Hybrid Seeds, Direct Seeds Inc., Hyland Seed (W.G. Thompson & Sons Ltd.), Maizex Inc., Mycogen Canada Inc., Novartis Seeds Inc., Pride Seeds (King Agro Inc.), Renk Seed Company of Canada Ltd. and Zeneca Seeds.

NISA
December 31 is the final deadline for producers to:

CORN PRICES (November 15, 1999)

Period: Oct. 1 - Sept. 30

Approximate Tonnes Marketed

Average Weighted Price

1998-99

3,881,900

$117.77/tonne

1997-98

2,530,000

$141.48/tonne

1996-97

3,007,200

$151.24/tonne

The above figures are based on levies received by OCPA for commercial sales.


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